AI are not taking our jobs anytime soon
stop.
Some jobs have an intrinsic human element that cannot be replaced: streamers, dancers, musical artists, athletes, and child caretakers. Which is something I assume the AI bulls would be willing to concede, though this applies to more jobs than people think it does. Self-service websites have not eliminated waiters and animated porn has not stopped people from going to strip clubs. The same applies to coaches, fashion designers, nurses, therapists, interior decorators, coaches, counselors, physical news reporters, pundits, esports players, fitness trainers, and social media influencers.
Jobs with physical or agentic components to them could technically be replaced, but for the forseeable future jobs like janitors and surgeons will need to be done by humans. It’s possible that AI ends up progressing to the point that it can revolutionize robotics to the point that this is not the case anymore, though there is no particular reason to believe that will happen. It’s not like predictions of the prospects of future technologies have ever been accurate.
To estimate the degree to which the average job is automatable, I asked o3-mini for a list of the 1000 most common jobs in the United States as a baseline. Then, I went through each job and grouped them into 6 categories:
1: could be automated using an AI+ a human prompter or current machinery (e.g. software engineer, cashier).
2: difficult to automate due to physical component (e.g. surgeon, police officer)
3: difficult to automate because of agentic component (e.g. manager, entrepreneur)
4: difficult to automate because of political/institutional reasons (e.g. doctor, lawyer)
5: cannot be automated because of human element (e.g. sports star, vocalist)
6: possibly automatable but unlikely to be automated (e.g. flight attendant, barista).
On a technical level, I count a prompter using an LLM as “automation” even if there is a human agent behind them. You could argue that almost any job then could satisfy that criteria, so I added the criteria that it only constitutes automation if using an LLM makes a job significantly easier.
I also asked o3 to group the occupations as well, because I did not put that much effort into the grouping task — for 90% of the jobs, I looked at the job for a few seconds and made a decision. These were the results:
Both of us agree that 38-46% of US jobs can be easily automated with a human prompter + an AI, though o3 thought there were more political barriers to automation than I did. Looking through the list, it was because I flagged jobs with physical/agentic barriers that also had political barriers as 2s/3s because I view these as a far more substantial limitations; political barriers could be eroded through legislation and cultural changes while physical and agentic barriers are likely to be more persistent. In a few cases, o3 was making some bizarre decisions, such as categorizing mechanical engineers and paralegals as 4s instead of 1s.
There was a large amount of consistency between my answers and o3’s for most categories, except for 6:
II.
In an alternative universe, a Russian man named Ivan Burak has developed a virus called the worldender which is 100% lethal within 2 weeks and can be transmitted through any medium. The virus spreads to every single living human being and kills them all, Burak reacts with a smile and commits suicide. Humanity is gone. But the internet is still semifunctional; anybody who is alive could log on and visit it.
In the absence of humanity, what do AIs do? Nothing, for the most part. The ones with preprogrammed routines will still post on twitter or scrape the internet. Otherwise, the internet dies. If there’s something the austrians got right, it’s that the economy is people “just doing things”.
A necessary condition for AI agency is to have thought and action patterns that are as reliable as the median human’s. And they simply are not. They might be able to solve fields metals questions but they still mess up on fairly simple taks, such as this connect the dots problem:
As long as it messes up on these simple tasks, current AIs will not measure up to humans in terms of agency. On matrix reasoning problems, the pass rates within AIs and humans are uncorrelated, so an item that humans find easy will not necessarily be easy for an AI to do. Therefore, for an AI to avoid making simple mistakes in a set of tasks, it will have to have a far greater baseline of ability than a human.
A steelman of the AI replacement argument that is that LLMs make certain jobs, such as software engineering or statistical analysis, more easy and accessible which screws over the new hires and benefits the older ones, while credentialized occupations are able to avoid this issue. And they do. But this is different from actual replacement: replacement means substantial numbers of people getting unemployed.
___________________________________________________________________________
Datafile for the jobs: left is my rating, right is o3’s
1 Accountant 1 1
2 Actuary 1 1
3 Administrative Assistant 3 1
4 Advertising Manager 3 3
5 Aerospace Engineer 1 4
6 Agricultural Manager 3 3
7 Air Traffic Controller 1 4
8 Aircraft Mechanic 2 2
9 Anesthesiologist 2 4
10 Animal Caretaker 2 2
11 Appraiser 1 1
12 Architect 1 4
13 Archivist 2 1
14 Art Director 3 5
15 Artist 5 5
16 Assembly Line Worker 2 2
17 Assistant Manager 3 3
18 Athletic Trainer 2 2
19 Auditor 3 1
20 Auto Mechanic 2 2
21 Baker 2 2
22 Bank Teller 1 1
23 Barista 6 6
24 Bartender 6 6
25 Biologist 1 1
26 Bookkeeper 2 1
27 Bricklayer 2 2
28 Budget Analyst 1 1
29 Business Analyst 1 1
30 Business Consultant 1 3
31 Bus Driver 1 2
32 Butcher 2 2
33 Carpenter 2 2
34 Cashier 1 1
35 Chef 2 6
36 Chemical Engineer 1 4
37 Chemist 1 1
38 Childcare Worker 2 5
39 Chiropractor 2 4
40 Civil Engineer 1 4
41 Claims Adjuster 1 1
42 Clinical Laboratory Technician 1 1
43 Coach 5 5
44 Commercial Diver 1 2
45 Communications Specialist 1 1
46 Community Service Manager 3 3
47 Compliance Officer 3 4
48 Computer Hardware Engineer 1 4
49 Computer Programmer 1 1
50 Computer Support Specialist 1 1
51 Construction Manager 3 3
52 Consultant 1 3
53 Correctional Officer 2 2
54 Cosmetologist 1 2
55 Counselor 1 5
56 Court Reporter 1 1
57 Customer Service Representative 1 1
58 Data Analyst 1 1
59 Database Administrator 1 1
60 Dental Assistant 2 2
61 Dental Hygienist 2 4
62 Dentist 2 4
63 Dermatologist 4 4
64 Diagnostic Medical Sonographer 4 2
65 Diesel Mechanic 2 2
66 Dietitian 1 4
67 Director of Operations 3 3
68 Dispatcher 3 1
69 Doctor 4 4
70 Economist 6 1
71 Editor 3 1
72 Electrical Engineer 1 4
73 Electrician 1 2
74 Elementary School Teacher 1 4
75 Emergency Medical Technician 1 2
76 Engineer 1 4
77 Environmental Engineer 1 4
78 Environmental Scientist 6 1
79 Epidemiologist 6 1
80 Event Planner 3 3
81 Executive Assistant 3 1
82 Fashion Designer 5 5
83 Financial Advisor 1 3
84 Financial Analyst 1 1
85 Firefighter 2 2
86 Fitness Trainer 5 5
87 Flight Attendant 6 6
88 Floor Installer 2 2
89 Food Scientist 6 1
90 Forensic Scientist 6 1
91 Forester 2 2
92 Forklift Operator 2 2
93 Fundraiser 3 5
94 Funeral Director 3 4
95 Gas Plant Operator 3 2
96 General Practitioner 4 4
97 Geologist 6 1
98 Graphic Designer 1 5
99 Groundskeeper 2 2
100 Hairdresser 2 2
101 Health Educator 1 1
102 Healthcare Administrator 3 3
103 Heavy Equipment Operator 2 2
104 High School Teacher 1 4
105 Home Health Aide 5 5
106 Hospital Administrator 3 3
107 Hotel Manager 3 3
108 Human Resources Specialist 1 3
109 HVAC Technician 2 2
110 Industrial Engineer 1 4
111 Industrial Machinery Mechanic 2 2
112 Information Security Analyst 1 1
113 Information Technology Manager 3 3
114 Inspector 2 1
115 Insurance Agent 3 6
116 Interior Designer 5 5
117 Interpreter 1 5
118 Janitor 2 2
119 Kindergarten Teacher 1 4
120 Landscape Architect 1 4
121 Landscaper 2 2
122 Lawyer 4 4
123 Legal Secretary 1 1
124 Librarian 2 1
125 Loan Officer 3 4
126 Logistician 1 1
127 Machinist 2 2
128 Maintenance Worker 2 2
129 Management Consultant 3 3
130 Manufacturing Technician 2 2
131 Marine Biologist 1 1
132 Market Research Analyst 1 1
133 Marketing Manager 3 3
134 Massage Therapist 2 2
135 Mechanical Engineer 1 4
136 Medical Assistant 1 2
137 Medical Laboratory Technician 1 1
138 Medical Records Technician 1 1
139 Medical Transcriptionist 1 1
140 Mental Health Counselor 6 5
141 Microbiologist 1 1
142 Middle School Teacher 1 4
143 Military Officer 6 4
144 Mining Engineer 1 4
145 Mobile Developer 1 1
146 Mortgage Loan Officer 1 4
147 Musician 5 5
148 Network Administrator 3 1
149 Network Engineer 1 1
150 Neurologist 1 4
151 Nurse 5 4
152 Nurse Anesthetist 5 4
153 Nurse Practitioner 5 4
154 Nutritionist 1 4
155 Occupational Therapist 5 4
156 Office Clerk 1 1
157 Operations Manager 3 3
158 Optometrist 4 4
159 Painter 5 2
160 Paralegal 1 4
161 Park Ranger 2 2
162 Pathologist 6 4
163 Payroll Clerk 1 1
164 Personal Trainer 2 5
165 Pest Control Worker 2 2
166 Pharmacist 1 4
167 Pharmacy Technician 2 2
168 Photographer 2 5
169 Physical Therapist 5 2
170 Physician 4 4
171 Physicist 6 1
172 Plumber 2 2
173 Police Officer 2 2
174 Political Scientist 6 1
175 Preschool Teacher 2 4
176 Private Detective 2 2
177 Probation Officer 2 2
178 Project Manager 3 3
179 Property Manager 3 3
180 Psychiatrist 5 4
181 Psychologist 6 4
182 Public Relations Specialist 1 5
183 Purchasing Agent 1 1
184 Quality Control Inspector 2 1
185 Radiologic Technologist 2 2
186 Real Estate Agent 3 4
187 Receptionist 1 1
188 Recruiter 3 5
189 Registered Nurse 5 4
190 Rehabilitation Counselor 6 5
191 Reporter 5 1
192 Restaurant Manager 3 3
193 Retail Sales Associate 1 1
194 Risk Manager 3 3
195 Safety Manager 3 3
196 Sales Manager 3 3
197 Sales Representative 3 1
198 School Counselor 5 5
199 Secondary School Teacher 6 4
200 Security Guard 2 2
201 Social Worker 2 5
202 Software Developer 1 1
203 Software Tester 1 1
204 Sound Engineer 1 5
205 Special Education Teacher 6 4
206 Speech-Language Pathologist 1 4
207 Statistician 1 1
208 Stock Clerk 2 2
209 Store Manager 3 3
210 Structural Engineer 1 4
211 Substance Abuse Counselor 5 5
212 Surgeon 2 2
213 Surveyor 2 2
214 Systems Analyst 1 1
215 Tax Preparer 1 1
216 Teacher Assistant 1 1
217 Technical Support Specialist 1 1
218 Telecommunications Technician 2 2
219 Truck Driver 1 2
220 Tutor 1 5
221 Urban Planner 3 4
222 Usability Specialist 1 1
223 Veterinarian 2 4
224 Veterinary Technician 2 2
225 Video Editor 1 5
226 Virtual Assistant 1 1
227 Web Developer 1 1
228 Writer 1 5
229 Zoologist 6 1
230 Auctioneer 3 6
231 Airline Pilot 1 6
232 Amusement Park Worker 2 2
233 Animal Trainer 2 5
234 Anthropologist 6 1
235 App Developer 1 1
236 Appliance Repair Technician 2 2
237 Arborist 2 2
238 Assembly Technician 2 2
239 Asset Manager 3 3
240 Athletic Coach 5 5
241 Auction House Specialist 3 6
242 Auto Body Repair Technician 2 2
243 Automotive Service Technician 2 2
244 Avionics Technician 2 2
245 Bailiff 2 2
246 Bank Manager 3 3
247 Bankruptcy Lawyer 4 4
248 Benefits Administrator 3 3
249 Bicycle Mechanic 2 2
250 Biomedical Engineer 1 4
251 Biostatistician 1 1
252 Book Editor 1 1
253 Brand Manager 3 3
254 Building Inspector 2 2
255 Business Development Manager 3 3
256 Cable Installer 2 2
257 Call Center Manager 3 3
258 Call Center Operator 1 1
259 Cargo Dispatcher 2 1
260 Cardiovascular Technologist 2 4
261 Cargo Logistics Coordinator 3 1
262 Casino Dealer 2 6
263 Catering Manager 3 3
264 Cement Mason 2 2
265 Chemical Plant Operator 2 2
266 Child Life Specialist 5 5
267 Claims Examiner 1 1
268 Clinical Research Coordinator 3 1
269 Clinical Social Worker 5 5
270 Compliance Analyst 1 4
271 Conservation Scientist 6 1
272 Construction Laborer 2 2
273 Content Manager 3 3
274 Contract Administrator 3 1
275 Corporate Trainer 3 3
276 Rehabilitation Specialist 1 5
277 Courier 1 2
278 Credit Analyst 1 1
279 Credit Counselor 1 5
280 Criminal Investigator 2 2
281 Curator 2 1
282 Customer Success Manager 3 3
283 Data Entry Clerk 1 1
284 Debt Collector 1 2
285 Demographer 6 1
286 Dietetic Technician 2 4
287 Distribution Manager 3 3
288 Document Management Specialist 3 1
289 E-commerce Manager 3 3
290 Econometrician 6 1
291 Electrical Powerline Installer 2 2
292 Electro-Mechanical Technician 2 2
293 Emergency Dispatcher 3 1
294 Employment Specialist 1 1
295 Endoscopy Technician 2 2
296 Environmental Compliance Specialist 1 4
297 Environmental Health Technician 2 2
298 Facilities Manager 3 3
299 Fashion Merchandiser 5 3
300 Field Service Technician 2 2
301 Film Director 5 5
302 Financial Controller 3 3
303 Financial Planner 3 3
304 Fitness Coordinator 2 3
305 Flight Engineer 1 2
306 Floor Manager 3 3
307 Food Service Manager 3 3
308 Forensic Accountant 1 1
309 Freight Broker 3 1
310 Funeral Service Manager 3 3
311 Furniture Finisher 2 2
312 Glass Installer 2 2
313 Grant Writer 1 1
314 Grocery Store Manager 3 3
315 Grounds Maintenance Technician 2 2
316 Barber 2 2
317 Hazardous Materials Removal Worker 2 2
318 Health Information Technician 1 1
319 Health Services Manager 3 3
320 Heating Technician 2 2
321 Home Inspector 2 1
322 Hospitality Manager 3 3
323 Hotel Concierge 5 5
324 Industrial Designer 1 5
325 Information Systems Analyst 1 1
326 Instructional Coordinator 3 4
327 Insurance Underwriter 1 1
328 Interior Decorator 5 5
329 IT Support Technician 2 1
330 Lead Janitor 2 2
331 Laboratory Manager 3 3
332 Landscape Technician 2 2
333 Laundry Attendant 2 2
334 Law Clerk 1 1
335 Legal Investigator 1 4
336 Legal Nurse Consultant 1 4
337 Lighting Technician 2 2
338 Loan Processor 1 1
339 Logistics Coordinator 3 1
340 Machine Operator 2 2
341 Machine Maintenance Technician 2 2
342 Maintenance Supervisor 3 3
343 Management Analyst 1 1
344 Manufacturing Engineer 1 4
345 Market Manager 3 3
346 Medical Biller 1 1
347 Medical Coder 1 1
348 Medical Equipment Technician 2 2
349 Medical Illustrator 1 5
350 Medical Office Administrator 3 3
351 Medical Records Manager 3 3
352 Meeting Planner 3 3
353 Mental Health Technician 2 2
354 Microcomputer Technician 2 1
355 Mortgage Processor 1 1
356 Multimedia Specialist 1 5
357 Museum Educator 6 4
358 Music Producer 5 5
359 Network Support Technician 2 1
360 Neurodiagnostic Technologist 2 2
361 Nursing Assistant 2 2
362 Nutrition Assistant 1 1
363 Occupational Health Specialist 1 4
364 Office Manager 3 3
365 Operations Analyst 1 1
366 Optical Technician 2 2
367 Orthodontic Assistant 2 2
368 Orthopedic Technician 2 2
369 Packaging Technician 2 2
370 Paramedic 2 2
371 Parking Enforcement Officer 3 2
372 Payroll Manager 3 3
373 Pediatric Nurse 4 4
374 Pediatrician 4 4
375 Performance Marketing Specialist 1 1
376 Personal Financial Advisor 3 3
377 Pest Control Technician 2 2
378 Petroleum Engineer 1 4
379 Pharmaceutical Sales Representative 3 6
380 Pharmacy Manager 3 3
381 Photogrammetrist 1 1
382 Physical Science Technician 2 1
383 Physician Assistant 1 4
384 Pipeline Technician 2 2
385 Plasterer 2 2
386 Plating Specialist 2 2
387 Pool Technician 2 2
388 Postal Worker 2 2
389 Precision Instrument Technician 2 2
390 Preschool Administrator 3 3
391 Print Production Manager 3 3
392 Process Engineer 1 4
393 Product Manager 3 3
394 Product Planner 3 3
395 Production Assistant 2 1
396 Production Manager 3 3
397 Project Coordinator 3 1
398 Property Assessor 3 1
399 Prosthetist 4 4
400 Quality Assurance Analyst 1 1
401 Quality Engineer 1 1
402 Radiation Therapist 2 2
403 Radiologic Technician 2 2
404 Real Estate Appraiser 3 1
405 Real Estate Broker 3 4
406 Reception Supervisor 3 3
407 Recycling Coordinator 3 1
408 Regulatory Affairs Specialist 1 4
409 Rehabilitation Technician 2 2
410 Rental Manager 3 3
411 Research Scientist 1 1
412 Reservation Agent 3 1
413 Retail Buyer 3 1
414 Retail Manager 3 3
415 Revenue Manager 3 3
416 Risk Analyst 1 1
417 Robotic Technician 1 2
418 Sales Consultant 1 3
419 Sales Engineer 1 1
420 Sales Operations Specialist 1 1
421 Scientific Technician 1 1
422 Security Supervisor 3 3
423 Semiconductor Technician 2 2
424 Service Advisor 1 6
425 Service Technician 2 2
426 Shipping and Receiving Clerk 1 2
427 Social Media Manager 3 3
428 Software Architect 1 1
429 Solar Panel Installer 2 2
430 Special Events Coordinator 3 3
431 Speech Therapist 5 4
432 Sports Coach 5 5
433 Sports Manager 3 3
434 Staffing Specialist 1 3
435 Stocker 2 2
436 Structural Designer 1 4
437 Supply Chain Manager 3 3
438 Sustainability Specialist 1 1
439 Survey Technician 2 2
440 Systems Administrator 1 1
441 Talent Acquisition Specialist 1 3
442 Tax Auditor 1 1
443 Tax Consultant 1 4
444 Technical Writer 1 1
445 Telecommunications Engineer 1 4
446 Test Engineer 1 1
447 Theater Director 3 5
448 Timekeeper 1 1
449 Tissue Technician 2 2
450 Tire Technician 2 2
451 Title Examiner 1 1
452 Toll Collector 2 1
453 Training Specialist 1 3
454 Transit Operator 2 2
455 Transportation Planner 3 3
456 Travel Agent 1 1
457 Truck Dispatcher 1 1
458 Underground Miner 2 2
459 Uniformed Services Officer 2 2
460 University Professor 6 4
461 User Experience Designer 1 1
462 Utility Line Installer 2 2
463 Veterinary Assistant 2 2
464 Video Game Designer 1 5
465 Virtual Reality Developer 1 1
466 Visual Merchandiser 1 5
467 Waste Management Specialist 1 1
468 Water Treatment Plant Operator 2 2
469 Welder 2 2
470 Wind Turbine Technician 2 2
471 Woodworker 2 2
472 Yoga Instructor 2 5
473 Zookeeper 2 2
474 Airline Customer Service Agent 1 1
475 Animal Nutritionist 1 1
476 Application Support Analyst 1 1
477 Aquaculturist 1 2
478 Arboricultural Technician 2 2
479 Artificial Intelligence Specialist 1 1
480 Asset Protection Specialist 1 3
481 Auction Specialist 1 6
482 Automotive Engineer 1 4
483 Behavioral Health Technician 2 2
484 Biochemical Engineer 1 4
485 Biotechnology Researcher 1 1
486 Broadcast Technician 1 2
487 Building Maintenance Technician 2 2
488 Business Intelligence Analyst 1 1
489 Personal Care Assistant 5 5
490 Casino Cage Worker 5 6
491 Certified Nursing Assistant 5 4
492 Chemical Technician 2 2
493 Child Protective Services Worker 5 5
494 Claims Processor 1 1
495 Clinical Data Manager 1 3
496 Clinical Nurse Leader 5 4
497 Computer Systems Analyst 1 1
498 Conservation Officer 2 2
499 Construction Estimator 1 1
500 Consumer Loan Officer 1 4
501 Contract Project Manager 3 3
502 Correctional Counselor 5 5
503 Corporate Communications Specialist 1 1
504 Cost Estimator 1 1
505 Credit Risk Analyst 1 1
506 Culinary Director 3 3
507 Data Scientist 1 1
508 Demolition Worker 2 2
509 Digital Marketing Manager 3 3
510 Digital Media Specialist 1 1
511 Director of Finance 3 3
512 Distribution Center Manager 3 3
513 E-learning Specialist 1 1
514 Electrical Design Engineer 1 4
515 Electronic Assembler 2 2
516 Emergency Room Technician 2 2
517 Energy Analyst 1 1
518 Environmental Planner 1 4
519 Event Marketing Specialist 1 1
520 Executive Chef 3 3
521 Export Manager 3 3
522 Facilities Technician 2 2
523 Fashion Buyer 5 3
524 Field Service Engineer 1 2
525 Financial Auditor 1 1
526 Fleet Manager 3 3
527 Foreman 5 3
528 Freight Handler 2 2
529 Fund Accounting Specialist 1 1
530 Gaming Manager 3 3
531 Gas Distribution Technician 2 2
532 Geospatial Analyst 1 1
533 Global Supply Chain Manager 3 3
534 Grant Administrator 3 3
535 Green Building Consultant 1 3
536 Health and Safety Specialist 1 1
537 Healthcare Consultant 1 3
538 HVAC Installer 2 2
539 Heavy Truck Driver 1 2
540 Home Appliance Repair Technician 2 2
541 Hospitality Coordinator 3 3
542 Human Capital Manager 3 3
543 Import/Export Coordinator 3 1
544 Industrial Maintenance Technician 2 2
545 Information Architect 1 1
546 Instructional Designer 1 1
547 Integrated Marketing Manager 3 3
548 Interior Architect 1 4
549 Investment Banking Analyst 1 1
550 IT Project Manager 3 3
551 Laboratory Technician 2 1
552 Land Surveyor 2 2
553 Landscape Designer 2 5
554 Laser Technician 2 2
555 Lead Software Developer 2 1
556 Legal Consultant 1 4
557 Loan Servicing Specialist 1 1
558 Logistics Manager 3 3
559 Machine Learning Engineer 1 1
560 Maintenance Electrician 1 2
561 Manufacturing Supervisor 3 3
562 Market Development Manager 3 3
563 Media Buyer 5 1
564 Medical Dispatcher 1 1
565 Medical Laboratory Manager 3 3
566 Medical Receptionist 1 1
567 Metallurgical Engineer 1 4
568 Meteorologist 6 1
569 Mobile Application Developer 1 1
570 Mortgage Underwriter 1 4
571 Motion Graphics Designer 1 5
572 Multimedia Producer 1 5
573 Network Security Engineer 1 1
574 New Product Development Manager 3 3
575 Nursing Supervisor 3 4
576 Occupational Health Nurse 5 4
577 Offshore Drilling Engineer 1 4
578 Operations Supervisor 3 3
579 Optical Engineer 1 4
580 Order Fulfillment Specialist 1 1
581 Packaging Engineer 1 4
582 Paint Technician 2 2
583 Patent Examiner 3 1
584 Payroll Specialist 1 1
585 Performance Analyst 1 1
586 Personal Banker 1 4
587 Pharmaceutical Technician 2 2
588 Photographic Technician 2 2
589 Physical Science Researcher 1 1
590 Pipeline Operator 2 2
591 Plant Manager 3 3
592 Plastic Molder 2 2
593 Policy Analyst 1 1
594 Portfolio Manager 3 3
595 Post Production Editor 1 5
596 Power Plant Operator 2 2
597 Precision Machinist 2 2
598 Procurement Specialist 1 1
599 Product Development Engineer 1 4
600 Production Planner 3 1
601 Program Analyst 1 1
602 Project Scheduler 1 1
603 Public Health Analyst 1 1
604 Purchasing Manager 3 3
605 Quality Assurance Manager 3 3
606 Quality Control Technician 2 2
607 Real Estate Leasing Agent 3 4
608 Recreation Director 3 3
609 Recycling Technician 2 2
610 Regional Sales Manager 3 3
611 Regulatory Compliance Manager 3 4
612 Relationship Manager 3 3
613 Renewable Energy Consultant 1 3
614 Research and Development Engineer 1 4
615 Retail Operations Manager 3 3
616 Revenue Analyst 1 1
617 Robotics Engineer 1 1
618 Safety Coordinator 3 1
619 Sales Analyst 1 1
620 Sales Director 3 3
621 Savings and Loan Officer 1 4
622 Scheduling Coordinator 1 1
623 Security Systems Installer 2 2
624 Service Manager 3 3
625 Signal Processing Engineer 1 1
626 Social Media Coordinator 3 1
627 Software Integration Engineer 1 1
628 Solar Energy Technician 2 2
629 Special Projects Manager 3 3
630 Staff Accountant 1 1
631 Statistical Analyst 1 1
632 Strategic Planner 1 3
633 Supply Chain Analyst 1 1
634 System Integration Engineer 1 1
635 Systems Engineer 1 1
636 Talent Manager 3 3
637 Technical Account Manager 3 3
638 Technical Consultant 1 1
639 Technical Project Manager 3 3
640 Telecommunications Specialist 1 2
641 Test Technician 2 2
642 Theater Technician 2 2
643 Trade Specialist 1 1
644 Traffic Coordinator 3 1
645 Training Coordinator 3 3
646 Transcriptionist 1 1
647 Transportation Supervisor 3 3
648 Travel Coordinator 3 1
649 Underwriting Manager 3 3
650 Urban Designer 5 5
651 User Interface Designer 1 1
652 Utility Technician 2 2
653 Vehicle Inspector 2 2
654 Video Producer 1 5
655 Visual Effects Artist 1 5
656 Warehouse Manager 3 3
657 Wastewater Treatment Operator 3 2
658 Web Content Manager 3 3
659 Web Content Specialist 1 1
660 Web Operations Manager 3 3
661 Website Administrator 3 1
662 Wildlife Biologist 1 1
663 Wind Energy Engineer 1 4
664 Workforce Development Specialist 1 3
665 Youth Counselor 3 5
666 Zoological Technician 2 2
667 Event Producer 3 3
668 Business Systems Analyst 1 1
669 Cloud Solutions Architect 1 1
670 Compliance Manager 3 4
671 Corporate Strategist 1 3
672 Cybersecurity Analyst 1 1
673 Data Center Technician 1 2
674 Data Privacy Officer 1 4
675 DevOps Engineer 1 1
676 Digital Strategist 1 1
677 E-commerce Specialist 1 1
678 Enterprise Architect 1 4
679 Facility Coordinator 3 1
680 Financial Systems Analyst 1 1
681 Front-End Developer 1 1
682 Full-Stack Developer 1 1
683 Geographic Information Systems Analyst 1 1
684 Global Marketing Manager 1 3
685 Innovation Manager 3 3
686 IT Auditor 1 1
687 Machine Operator Supervisor 3 3
688 Manufacturing Technician Supervisor 3 3
689 Market Intelligence Analyst 1 1
690 Mobile Network Engineer 1 1
691 Molecular Biologist 1 1
692 Network Architect 1 1
693 Operations Research Analyst 1 1
694 Packaging Coordinator 3 1
695 Platform Engineer 1 1
696 Predictive Analytics Specialist 1 1
697 Process Improvement Specialist 1 1
698 Product Marketing Manager 3 3
699 Production Technician 2 2
700 Program Manager 3 3
701 Project Engineer 1 4
702 Quality Assurance Engineer 1 1
703 Renewable Energy Engineer 1 4
704 Robotic Process Automation Specialist 1 1
705 Sales Operations Manager 3 3
706 Security Analyst 1 1
707 Senior Data Analyst 1 1
708 Senior Financial Analyst 1 1
709 Service Delivery Manager 3 3
710 Software Quality Engineer 1 1
711 Solutions Architect 1 1
712 Strategic Sourcing Manager 3 3
713 Supply Chain Planner 1 1
714 System Administrator 3 1
715 Technical Program Manager 3 3
716 Technology Consultant 1 1
717 Test Automation Engineer 1 1
718 Total Quality Manager 3 3
719 Training Manager 3 3
720 UI/UX Designer 3 1
721 User Researcher 1 1
722 Vendor Manager 3 3
723 Virtualization Engineer 1 1
724 Warehouse Supervisor 3 3
725 Web Analytics Manager 3 3
726 Website Developer 1 1
727 Workplace Safety Specialist 1 1
728 Artificial Intelligence Engineer 1 1
729 Automotive Technician 2 2
730 Biomanufacturing Specialist 1 4
731 Business Continuity Planner 1 3
732 Business Process Analyst 1 1
733 Capital Markets Analyst 1 1
734 Cloud Infrastructure Engineer 1 1
735 Commercial Loan Officer 1 4
736 Computer Vision Engineer 1 1
737 Construction Supervisor 3 3
738 Contract Manufacturing Specialist 1 2
739 Corporate Finance Analyst 1 1
740 Customer Experience Manager 3 3
741 Cybersecurity Engineer 1 1
742 Data Engineer 1 1
743 Data Governance Manager 3 3
744 Data Visualization Specialist 1 1
745 Digital Content Producer 1 5
746 EHS Specialist 1 1
747 Front-End Engineer 1 1
748 Geotechnical Engineer 1 4
749 Healthcare Data Analyst 1 1
750 Information Security Manager 3 3
751 IT Operations Manager 3 3
752 IT Security Manager 3 3
753 Java Developer 1 1
754 Machine Learning Scientist 1 1
755 Marketing Analyst 1 1
756 Media Relations Specialist 1 5
757 Mobile UX Designer 1 1
758 Network Administrator Supervisor 3 3
759 Online Community Manager 3 3
760 Platform Architect 1 1
761 Predictive Modeler 1 1
762 Product Analyst 1 1
763 Quality Manager 3 3
764 Research and Development Manager 3 3
765 Senior Software Developer 1 1
766 SEO Specialist 1 1
767 Service Desk Analyst 1 1
768 Software Configuration Manager 3 3
769 Software Development Manager 3 3
770 Software Engineer Manager 3 3
771 Solutions Consultant 1 1
772 Systems Integration Specialist 1 1
773 Technical Operations Manager 3 3
774 User Experience Researcher 1 1
775 Video Game Programmer 1 1
776 Virtualization Specialist 1 1
777 Web Application Developer 1 1
778 Website Designer 1 1
779 Business Intelligence Developer 1 1
780 Chief Data Officer 1 3
781 Cloud Engineer 1 1
782 Data Analytics Manager 3 3
783 Data Architect 1 1
784 Data Scientist Manager 3 3
785 Database Developer 1 1
786 DevSecOps Engineer 1 1
787 Digital Transformation Manager 3 3
788 Enterprise Data Manager 3 3
789 Full-Stack Engineer 1 1
790 Information Technology Director 3 3
791 IT Business Analyst 1 1
792 IT Consultant 1 1
793 IT Director 3 3
794 Lead Data Scientist 1 1
795 Machine Vision Engineer 1 1
796 Network Engineer Manager 3 3
797 Product Owner 3 3
798 Salesforce Administrator 3 1
799 Software Development Engineer in Test 1 1
800 Systems Development Engineer 1 1
801 Technical Support Manager 1 3
802 Blockchain Developer 1 1
803 Cloud Security Engineer 1 1
804 Data Integration Specialist 1 1
805 Data Quality Analyst 1 1
806 Database Manager 3 3
807 Digital Product Manager 3 3
808 Enterprise Mobility Manager 3 3
809 IT Asset Manager 3 3
810 Mobile Software Engineer 1 1
811 Platform Product Manager 3 3
812 Security Engineer 1 1
813 Service Integration Manager 3 3
814 Software Release Manager 3 3
815 Software Test Engineer 1 1
816 Systems Architect 1 1
817 Technical Operations Engineer 1 1
818 Application Developer 1 1
819 Data Operations Analyst 1 1
820 Digital Analytics Manager 3 3
821 IT Infrastructure Manager 3 3
822 Network Operations Center Technician 1 2
823 Robotic Software Engineer 1 1
824 Senior Cloud Engineer 1 1
825 Senior DevOps Engineer 1 1
826 Software Performance Engineer 1 1
827 Systems Integration Manager 3 3
828 Virtualization Architect 1 1
829 Cloud Application Developer 1 1
830 Data Solutions Architect 1 1
831 Digital Innovation Manager 3 3
832 Enterprise Integration Architect 1 1
833 IT Project Coordinator 3 1
834 Mobile Solutions Architect 1 1
835 Principal Data Engineer 1 1
836 Security Operations Center Analyst 1 1
837 Senior Database Administrator 3 1
838 Software Systems Engineer 1 1
839 Business Data Analyst 1 1
840 Cloud Infrastructure Manager 3 3
841 Data Migration Specialist 1 1
842 Digital Experience Designer 1 1
843 IT Compliance Analyst 1 4
844 IT Program Manager 3 3
845 Network Security Specialist 1 1
846 Software Engineering Director 1 3
847 Technical Solutions Engineer 1 1
848 User Interface Engineer 1 1
849 Analytics Consultant 1 1
850 Application Support Engineer 1 1
851 Big Data Engineer 1 1
852 Cloud Operations Engineer 1 1
853 Data Mining Specialist 1 1
854 Digital Strategy Consultant 1 1
855 IT Service Manager 3 3
856 Mobile Application Architect 1 1
857 Principal Software Engineer 1 1
858 Principal Software Engineer 1 1
859 Product Development Manager 3 3
860 Robotics Software Engineer 1 1
861 Senior IT Manager 3 3
862 Security Compliance Manager 3 3
863 Software Architecture Manager 3 3
864 Systems Reliability Engineer 1 1
865 Technology Strategy Consultant 1 1
866 Application Security Engineer 1 1
867 Cloud DevOps Engineer 1 1
868 Cyber Risk Analyst 1 1
869 Data Science Consultant 1 1
870 Digital Product Strategist 1 3
871 IT Governance Manager 3 3
872 IT Operations Analyst 1 1
873 Network Design Engineer 1 1
874 Senior Application Developer 1 1
875 Senior Cloud Architect 1 1
876 Senior Product Manager 3 3
877 Software Integration Manager 3 3
878 Systems Automation Engineer 1 1
879 Technology Innovation Director 3 3
880 Advanced Analytics Manager 3 3
881 Cloud Data Engineer 1 1
882 Data Science Manager 3 3
883 Digital Marketing Analyst 1 1
884 Enterprise Software Architect 1 1
885 IT Solutions Architect 1 1
886 Mobile Systems Engineer 1 1
887 Network Performance Engineer 1 1
888 Principal IT Architect 1 1
889 Senior Business Intelligence Analyst 1 1
890 Software Engineering Manager 3 3
891 Systems Data Analyst 1 1
892 Technical Project Director 3 3
893 Cloud Software Engineer 1 1
894 Data Strategy Manager 3 3
895 Digital Engineering Manager 3 3
896 IT Portfolio Manager 3 3
897 Network Automation Engineer 1 1
898 Senior Security Engineer 1 1
899 Software Quality Assurance Manager 3 3
900 Systems Programmer 1 1
901 Technology Integration Manager 3 3
902 Application Development Manager 3 3
903 Cloud Integration Engineer 1 1
904 Data Center Manager 3 3
905 Digital Operations Analyst 1 1
906 IT Business Partner 1 3
907 IT Strategy Manager 3 3
908 Network Systems Engineer 1 1
909 Product Engineering Manager 3 3
910 Quality Improvement Specialist 1 1
911 Software Engineering Consultant 1 1
912 Systems Reliability Manager 3 3
913 Technical Architecture Manager 3 3
914 Business Systems Manager 3 3
915 Cloud Services Manager 3 3
916 Data Science Engineer 1 1
917 Digital Engineering Director 3 3
918 Enterprise Data Architect 1 1
919 IT Infrastructure Architect 1 1
920 Mobile Device Manager 3 3
921 Network Systems Manager 3 3
922 Principal Software Manager 3 3
923 Security Operations Manager 3 3
924 Software Development Architect 1 1
925 Systems Engineering Manager 3 3
926 Technology Operations Director 1 3
927 Application Architecture Engineer 1 1
928 Cloud Engineering Manager 3 3
929 Data Management Director 3 3
930 Digital Transformation Director 3 3
931 IT Risk Analyst 1 1
932 Network Strategy Manager 3 3
933 Senior Systems Engineer 1 1
934 Software Automation Engineer 1 1
935 Systems Innovation Manager 3 3
936 Technical Delivery Manager 3 3
937 Data Warehouse Manager 3 3
938 Digital Commerce Manager 3 3
939 IT Architecture Director 3 3
940 IT Procurement Manager 3 3
941 Network Project Manager 3 3
942 Product Support Manager 3 3
943 Quality Systems Manager 3 3
944 Security Program Manager 3 3
945 Software Enablement Manager 3 3
946 Systems Performance Engineer 1 1
947 Technical Excellence Manager 3 3
948 Cloud Migration Specialist 1 1
949 Data Governance Analyst 1 1
950 Digital Integration Manager 3 3
951 IT Vendor Manager 3 3
952 Network Operations Manager 3 3
953 Principal Solutions Architect 1 1
954 Security Engineering Manager 3 3
955 Software Development Director 1 3
956 Systems Automation Manager 3 3
957 Technology Solutions Architect 1 1
958 Application Operations Manager 3 3
959 Cloud Strategy Manager 3 3
960 Data Insights Manager 3 3
961 Digital Security Manager 3 3
962 IT Business Leader 1 3
963 Network Services Manager 3 3
964 Principal Systems Engineer 1 1
965 Security Strategy Manager 3 3
966 Software Process Engineer 1 1
967 Systems Innovation Engineer 1 1
968 Technical Strategy Manager 3 3
969 Cloud Transformation Manager 3 3
970 Data Platform Engineer 1 1
971 Information Systems Manager 3 3
972 Digital Operations Director 1 3
973 Enterprise Risk Manager 3 3
974 Technical Services Manager 3 3
975 Automation Engineer 1 1
976 Innovation Engineer 1 1
977 Process Control Technician 1 2
978 Digital Content Strategist 1 3
979 Energy Efficiency Engineer 1 4
980 Industrial Safety Engineer 1 4
981 Marine Engineer 1 4
982 Quality Systems Engineer 1 1
983 Senior Automation Engineer 1 1
984 Strategic Operations Manager 3 3
985 Technical Quality Engineer 1 1
986 Utility Operations Manager 3 3
987 Data Compliance Officer 1 4
988 Enterprise Risk Analyst 1 1
989 IT Systems Analyst 1 1
990 Network Integration Engineer 1 1
991 Senior Infrastructure Engineer 1 1
992 Technology Research Analyst 1 1
993 Application Lifecycle Manager 3 3
994 Cloud Operations Manager 3 3
995 Data Center Operations Manager 3 3
996 Digital Risk Manager 3 3
997 Information Systems Engineer 1 1
998 Network Reliability Engineer 1 1
999 Senior Network Engineer 1 1
1000 Enterprise Platform Engineer 1 3o3 logs (my end)
Prompt: list the 1000 most common jobs in the united states
(then)
Prompt: categories are made for men. just name them at a reasonable level of granularity (e.g. software developer vs data scientist is a meaningful distinction, software engineer and senior software engineer is not) use any datasource.
(then)
Prompt: Multiple messages
(then)
Prompt: no list them in a csv actually
(then)
Prompt: I want you to take this list and add a third variable called auto3 where you categorize these jobs into 6 categories:1: could be automated with an LLM + a prompter, some other AI technology, or current machinery (e.g. software engineer, cashier). 2: difficult to automate due to physical component (e.g. surgeon, police officer) 3: difficult to automate because of agentic component (e.g. manager, entrepreneur) 4: difficult to automate because of political/institutional reasons(e.g. doctor, lawyer) 5: cannot be automated because of human element (e.g. sports star, vocalist) 6: possibly automatable but unlikely to be automated (e.g. flight attendant, barista).
(then)
Prompt: for all 1000 in the same order
Kind of a Burnhamesque take here but I think the main reason AI will not take over the job market (even for jobs which aren't super high skill) is because AI lacks accountability. Take pilots for example. They could have been replaced by autopilot a while ago, but when something goes wrong it is better for the companies involved that there is a pilot to soak up some of the blame. It's even more extreme in something like medicine. If a doctor fails you, you can sue him. If an AI fails you, you can't sue the AI, so you end up either suing the hospital or whatever company is partnering with the hospital to make the AI doctors. Managers especially are put in a vulnerable position by AI because they can't deflect their own failures or lack of productivity onto their subordinates. It's been a long while since Jobs existed purely because they are demanded to exist by the invisible hand of the free market.
AI as is and as it looks to be, not the mythical AGI, will have minimal job impact, but among those at risk there is a highly visible category of low tier meme creators and spreaders like run-of-the-mill journalists, illustrators, speech writers, songwriters and woke activists who make AI look like a major job threat for society because it is a threat to the unoriginal proles of the intellectual class.
Paul Krugman has parted ways with the NYT and became a full time substacker. Apparently the editors were tired of paying Nobel prize in economy money for ChatGPT level Orange Man Bad hot takes.