Props to you for changing your mind. I'm sure you'd still stand by the thesis of your previous article, i.e., that people are delusional about the extent to which AI is going to drastically affect their lives.
Lawyers perform many tasks and most are vulnerable to replacement by AI. Competent clients like businesses will be able to do more legal tasks with their own staff and law firms will need fewer partners to do the same work.
I wouldn't place much confidence on a tech demo though. Wait until you use it yourself or it is tested by someone who's opinions on the matter you trust.
If Manus AI was a hoax (not saying it is) it would be the single best way to get me to soften my position on China and embrace Sino-Futurism. I'm not there yet, but the idea of undermining China at this point seems more anti-civilization than pro-civilization. I was never in favor of NUKE BEIJING NOW, but I was somewhere on a scale from "withdraw from Taiwan" to "NUKE BEIJING," and I've moved along that spectrum...
1/10 - Completely withdraw from South Korea and Japan, recognize CCP sovereignty over Taiwan
2/10 - Scale down troops to 50% of present levels, recognize CCP sovereignty
3/10 - Keep troops in South Korea and Japan, but recognize CCP sovereignty
4/10 - Keep troops, and don't recognize sovereignty, but make it clear that America will not defend Taiwan from CCP
5/10 - Be ambiguous about whether America may economically help Taiwan resist CCP invasion
6/10 - give a weak unofficial commitment that America will probably support Taiwan with weapons
7/10 - give a strong official commitment that America will defend Taiwan with troops
8/10 - station 10,000 troops in Taiwan
9/10 - station 30,000 troops in Taiwan
10/10 - pre-emptive strike on Beijing
Previously I considered myself around 8/10, now I'm around a 7/10.
Seb, out of all the things that update you about agency it's the Claude clone with tools? I have no disagreement but I truly do not understand why this is the update.
Props to you for changing your mind. I'm sure you'd still stand by the thesis of your previous article, i.e., that people are delusional about the extent to which AI is going to drastically affect their lives.
How long since we locked in the artifices of intelligence?
Lawyers perform many tasks and most are vulnerable to replacement by AI. Competent clients like businesses will be able to do more legal tasks with their own staff and law firms will need fewer partners to do the same work.
I wouldn't place much confidence on a tech demo though. Wait until you use it yourself or it is tested by someone who's opinions on the matter you trust.
If Manus AI was a hoax (not saying it is) it would be the single best way to get me to soften my position on China and embrace Sino-Futurism. I'm not there yet, but the idea of undermining China at this point seems more anti-civilization than pro-civilization. I was never in favor of NUKE BEIJING NOW, but I was somewhere on a scale from "withdraw from Taiwan" to "NUKE BEIJING," and I've moved along that spectrum...
1/10 - Completely withdraw from South Korea and Japan, recognize CCP sovereignty over Taiwan
2/10 - Scale down troops to 50% of present levels, recognize CCP sovereignty
3/10 - Keep troops in South Korea and Japan, but recognize CCP sovereignty
4/10 - Keep troops, and don't recognize sovereignty, but make it clear that America will not defend Taiwan from CCP
5/10 - Be ambiguous about whether America may economically help Taiwan resist CCP invasion
6/10 - give a weak unofficial commitment that America will probably support Taiwan with weapons
7/10 - give a strong official commitment that America will defend Taiwan with troops
8/10 - station 10,000 troops in Taiwan
9/10 - station 30,000 troops in Taiwan
10/10 - pre-emptive strike on Beijing
Previously I considered myself around 8/10, now I'm around a 7/10.
Seb, out of all the things that update you about agency it's the Claude clone with tools? I have no disagreement but I truly do not understand why this is the update.
Yes.
U
Do the error bars overlapping to such an extent in the human + AI vs team no AI not give you concern?