But you said we were gonna pass the longevity event horizon and turn back into 14 year olds on Twitter though
I didn’t believe it albeit. Medicine will continue to move at a grueling pace as long as clownish “ethical standards for experimentation” and “safety regulations” exist…
Surprised to see you didn't make a prediction about nuclear energy; or general developments on how energy will be sourced, transported, delivered in general in the next 50 years.
With regards to psychedelics, someone like you would be totally fine. Don't jump straight to the scary, intense ones (ayahuasca, ibogaine, DMT) – and make sure it's in an environment with a guide who is initiated and who knows what he is doing. Once you are married, you could consider doing an MDMA trip with your wife; will skyrocket your sense of partnership and intimacy.
Seed oils being Stalin is pretty bad!! Not something to scoff at and dismiss with a hand-wave. Causes a lot of unnecessary inflammation even with a strong constitution.
Two months ago, I would've agreed that wokism is likely to continue increasing, but I don't believe that anymore. Basically, wokism is in direct conflict with reality. The more radical wokism gets, the most it destabilizes societies. It's thus destined to fail by either destroying civilization or repeatedly failing to achieve its intended goals (https://zerocontradictions.net/civilization/wokism#response-woke-dystopia). Right-wing political parties in the Western world have also become increasingly popular among generation Z in the past few years. For once, it seems that there may be a feasible chance at ending or even reversing the Great Replacement in the future.
I agree on pretty much everything else, and I tend to agree with you on most things more than I do with nearly all the other major HBD bloggers out there.
Very grim predictions all around. Makes me not want to get involved politically or donate to any causes.
Only positives I see are refinement culture: those who are motivated can keep their youthful appearance for much of life.
Im also more bullish on digital nomadism, psychedelics (which can be fun/helpful in low doses).
On your antipathy to natalism, I agree with the general disposition (I would be fine in theory with a smaller global population).
However there is a theory that fertility is a culturally learned behavior.
When cultural scripts change—such as in the 1960s, trends promoting reduced fertility—elites have rapid uptake, and proles lag behind. Maybe low IQ magic lumpenprole class has—absent coercive eugenic intervention from state or cutting off welfare—constant levels of fertility because they retarded and unable to recognize or adapt to cultural script.
Anyway, this suggests that natalism (promoting increased fertility across the board in hopes of making it high statu/s) is necessary to boost fertility of high IQ groups. As a more tailored approach (advocating that High IQ groups exclusively increase birthrate) forbidden by post WW2 norms.
Maybe Trump or Elon can weaken the taboos on eugenics and IQ, but—chad truth telling outliers aside—I dont see much evidence that EHC has become any more accepting of these things. I think only proles are signal boosting IQ discourse for reasons of its association with trump, and IQ talk will fall by the wayside when hes gone. I hope im wrong
“ the right wing equivalent of the climate change movement: taking a problem which exists and using it to agitate for political solutions that are either undesired or completely outside the overton window.”
1) I think the natalist movement is at least as much focused on culture and individual action than on wild policies
2) To the extent they do propose policies outside the Overton window, so what? I haven’t seen even much backlash to it, and maybe it gets people to think. Japan just created a 4-day work week in government for natalist reasons…
>I think the natalist movement is at least as much focused on culture and individual action than on wild policies
This is a fair point. My issue lies more with people who want to adopt an explicitly pro-birth government or advocate for radical solutions like banning women from education/workplace.
You say you aren't "pro rationality," but I think you are doing a commendable job of being rational while not being an insufferable brain in a vat itching to shove logical fallacies up people's asses.
Regarding collapse, Roko's post on resource depletion has persuaded me water scarcity probably is much less problematic than I originally thought. However, Roko didn't mention anything about non-renewable resources at all in the post that you linked. He later wrote an addendum that attempts to address this problem, but it uses very poor reasoning and it lacks important data. It should be self-explanatory why the world will eventually run out of non-renewable resources to anyone who thinks about what it means to be "non-renewable". Fossil fuels currently make up approximately ~80% of the world's energy consumption, so this is clearly a huge problem.
Nuclear energy may be able to partially alleviate the Earth's reliance on fossil fuels, but I strongly doubt that it will be enough (https://zerocontradictions.net/civilization/climate-change#nuclear-energy-future). I'm also not convinced that we won't have to worry about running out of phosphorous, metals, helium, or sand that's suitable for building semiconductors. The ability to renew most of those resources will depend on the future's energy supplies, which already seem to be at risk.
Another major potential contributor for collapse that wasn't mentioned is the instability of the world economy. Nearly all developed countries have record-breaking levels of national debt, shrinking populations to pay back said debt, unsustainable inflation, and they have little protection against future real estate bubbles. China currently has the largest real estate bubble of any country in history, so I doubt that the Chinese GDP will surpass the American GDP in 2044, since the bubble will likely pop by then.
If you disregard the mutation load theory, you should have theory were leftism comes from, why it coincidentally happened at the same time as the Industrial Revolution and why leftists look so genetically ugly.
Wokism is a new religion, and its flourishing is not hindered by modern nihilism and "rationalism". If old religions die, we should expect new religions to arise that will satisfy the needs of not only evil ugly people, but also healthy people who care about their families and their population. There is an obvious demand for such a religion, and traditional religions in developed countries refuse to respond to this demand, because the transfer of resources to the third world is more important to them.
Most of the points seem very plausible and I don't like it.
I have long had a similar sentiment in climate change. It will have a small effect on the developed cold world, and even benefit some countries like Russia, but will make life more difficult for crowding countries around the equator. A scenario where HBD is well known and they come anyways over climate troubles, it is possible that White people will start playing the game again. Mask off.
People are more risk averse IMO because institutions are larger. You are given a more comfortable life but we interact more and more with institutions we have absolutely zero sway over. Even people on top leadership roles have to abide by the bureaucracy and the board of trustees and the gov and NGOs and so on.
Collapse is unlikely on any individual reason but aggregated there is probably a decent chance. I think the most likely cause of collapse is if some supernatural deity punishes humanity for being cringe.
"The recent mental health crisis. I suspect that there was some increase in psychopathology in the 20th century, but the 21st century phenomenon is a statistical illusion."
Could you expand on this?
"Space exploration. Usually, skepticism of space exploration is associated with having a negative opinion of Elon Musk — which is irrational. The issue with space exploration as a field is that it is spearheaded by some genetic freak who is dragging a corpse with bloody teeth. When he dies, the field will likely decline"
This is why I support cloning Elon!!
Otherwise Ig what you are getting at in the big picture is something approaching this:
Elon aside, space colonization will probably too economically expensive and physically challenging to accomplish. It's highly unlikely to ever occur. Humanity would probably need 150-200 years before it even becomes possible, if ever. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BPXKWDVC
You're right, by simple excel sheet calculations, there is little motivation to venture out into the void. Still, here's to hoping for a brighter tomorrow:
But you said we were gonna pass the longevity event horizon and turn back into 14 year olds on Twitter though
I didn’t believe it albeit. Medicine will continue to move at a grueling pace as long as clownish “ethical standards for experimentation” and “safety regulations” exist…
Surprised to see you didn't make a prediction about nuclear energy; or general developments on how energy will be sourced, transported, delivered in general in the next 50 years.
With regards to psychedelics, someone like you would be totally fine. Don't jump straight to the scary, intense ones (ayahuasca, ibogaine, DMT) – and make sure it's in an environment with a guide who is initiated and who knows what he is doing. Once you are married, you could consider doing an MDMA trip with your wife; will skyrocket your sense of partnership and intimacy.
Seed oils being Stalin is pretty bad!! Not something to scoff at and dismiss with a hand-wave. Causes a lot of unnecessary inflammation even with a strong constitution.
My Second Comment:
Two months ago, I would've agreed that wokism is likely to continue increasing, but I don't believe that anymore. Basically, wokism is in direct conflict with reality. The more radical wokism gets, the most it destabilizes societies. It's thus destined to fail by either destroying civilization or repeatedly failing to achieve its intended goals (https://zerocontradictions.net/civilization/wokism#response-woke-dystopia). Right-wing political parties in the Western world have also become increasingly popular among generation Z in the past few years. For once, it seems that there may be a feasible chance at ending or even reversing the Great Replacement in the future.
I agree that self-driving vehicles aren't coming any time soon (https://zerocontradictions.net/civilization/technology#self-driving-vehicles).
My skepticism of space colonization is unrelated to my opinion of Elon Musk, whom I neither like nor dislike (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4EzZ54jqgLh8aGejB/?commentId=ig6ua9u5RjchkMm56).
I agree on pretty much everything else, and I tend to agree with you on most things more than I do with nearly all the other major HBD bloggers out there.
Very grim predictions all around. Makes me not want to get involved politically or donate to any causes.
Only positives I see are refinement culture: those who are motivated can keep their youthful appearance for much of life.
Im also more bullish on digital nomadism, psychedelics (which can be fun/helpful in low doses).
On your antipathy to natalism, I agree with the general disposition (I would be fine in theory with a smaller global population).
However there is a theory that fertility is a culturally learned behavior.
When cultural scripts change—such as in the 1960s, trends promoting reduced fertility—elites have rapid uptake, and proles lag behind. Maybe low IQ magic lumpenprole class has—absent coercive eugenic intervention from state or cutting off welfare—constant levels of fertility because they retarded and unable to recognize or adapt to cultural script.
Anyway, this suggests that natalism (promoting increased fertility across the board in hopes of making it high statu/s) is necessary to boost fertility of high IQ groups. As a more tailored approach (advocating that High IQ groups exclusively increase birthrate) forbidden by post WW2 norms.
Maybe Trump or Elon can weaken the taboos on eugenics and IQ, but—chad truth telling outliers aside—I dont see much evidence that EHC has become any more accepting of these things. I think only proles are signal boosting IQ discourse for reasons of its association with trump, and IQ talk will fall by the wayside when hes gone. I hope im wrong
I don’t follow your hate for natalism:
“ the right wing equivalent of the climate change movement: taking a problem which exists and using it to agitate for political solutions that are either undesired or completely outside the overton window.”
1) I think the natalist movement is at least as much focused on culture and individual action than on wild policies
2) To the extent they do propose policies outside the Overton window, so what? I haven’t seen even much backlash to it, and maybe it gets people to think. Japan just created a 4-day work week in government for natalist reasons…
>I think the natalist movement is at least as much focused on culture and individual action than on wild policies
This is a fair point. My issue lies more with people who want to adopt an explicitly pro-birth government or advocate for radical solutions like banning women from education/workplace.
You say you aren't "pro rationality," but I think you are doing a commendable job of being rational while not being an insufferable brain in a vat itching to shove logical fallacies up people's asses.
My First Comment:
Regarding collapse, Roko's post on resource depletion has persuaded me water scarcity probably is much less problematic than I originally thought. However, Roko didn't mention anything about non-renewable resources at all in the post that you linked. He later wrote an addendum that attempts to address this problem, but it uses very poor reasoning and it lacks important data. It should be self-explanatory why the world will eventually run out of non-renewable resources to anyone who thinks about what it means to be "non-renewable". Fossil fuels currently make up approximately ~80% of the world's energy consumption, so this is clearly a huge problem.
Nuclear energy may be able to partially alleviate the Earth's reliance on fossil fuels, but I strongly doubt that it will be enough (https://zerocontradictions.net/civilization/climate-change#nuclear-energy-future). I'm also not convinced that we won't have to worry about running out of phosphorous, metals, helium, or sand that's suitable for building semiconductors. The ability to renew most of those resources will depend on the future's energy supplies, which already seem to be at risk.
Overpopulation is not a meme either (https://zerocontradictions.net/faqs/overpopulation). It's a real potential threat, and it's most likely to happen when the Earth runs out of fossil fuels.
Another major potential contributor for collapse that wasn't mentioned is the instability of the world economy. Nearly all developed countries have record-breaking levels of national debt, shrinking populations to pay back said debt, unsustainable inflation, and they have little protection against future real estate bubbles. China currently has the largest real estate bubble of any country in history, so I doubt that the Chinese GDP will surpass the American GDP in 2044, since the bubble will likely pop by then.
These aren’t really testable predictions. Why not put some numbers on them so someone could potentially bet you. You might make some money!
Most important predictions are not testable.
If you disregard the mutation load theory, you should have theory were leftism comes from, why it coincidentally happened at the same time as the Industrial Revolution and why leftists look so genetically ugly.
I have detailed answers for all of those questions: https://zerocontradictions.net/civilization/wokism
Wokism is a new religion, and its flourishing is not hindered by modern nihilism and "rationalism". If old religions die, we should expect new religions to arise that will satisfy the needs of not only evil ugly people, but also healthy people who care about their families and their population. There is an obvious demand for such a religion, and traditional religions in developed countries refuse to respond to this demand, because the transfer of resources to the third world is more important to them.
Most of the points seem very plausible and I don't like it.
I have long had a similar sentiment in climate change. It will have a small effect on the developed cold world, and even benefit some countries like Russia, but will make life more difficult for crowding countries around the equator. A scenario where HBD is well known and they come anyways over climate troubles, it is possible that White people will start playing the game again. Mask off.
People are more risk averse IMO because institutions are larger. You are given a more comfortable life but we interact more and more with institutions we have absolutely zero sway over. Even people on top leadership roles have to abide by the bureaucracy and the board of trustees and the gov and NGOs and so on.
Collapse is unlikely on any individual reason but aggregated there is probably a decent chance. I think the most likely cause of collapse is if some supernatural deity punishes humanity for being cringe.
"The recent mental health crisis. I suspect that there was some increase in psychopathology in the 20th century, but the 21st century phenomenon is a statistical illusion."
Could you expand on this?
"Space exploration. Usually, skepticism of space exploration is associated with having a negative opinion of Elon Musk — which is irrational. The issue with space exploration as a field is that it is spearheaded by some genetic freak who is dragging a corpse with bloody teeth. When he dies, the field will likely decline"
This is why I support cloning Elon!!
Otherwise Ig what you are getting at in the big picture is something approaching this:
https://letter.palladiummag.com/p/the-end-of-industrial-society.
Rise in mental illness is largely specific to the USA
https://werkat.substack.com/p/is-public-health-declining
Can't find link but that increase is largely due to changes in what constitutes depression.
Is there good enough data on say Europe?
> This is why I support cloning Elon!
No thanks. https://www.emilkirkegaard.com/p/yes-elon-should-clone-himself-now/comment/79107067
Elon aside, space colonization will probably too economically expensive and physically challenging to accomplish. It's highly unlikely to ever occur. Humanity would probably need 150-200 years before it even becomes possible, if ever. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BPXKWDVC
You're right, by simple excel sheet calculations, there is little motivation to venture out into the void. Still, here's to hoping for a brighter tomorrow:
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/08/16/the-only-reason-to-explore-space/