A lot of the optimism and steam that the right wing was gathering in the early 2020s with the regime’s failure to address the COVID pandemic, Biden’s growing unpopularity, and the massive drop in institutional trust has… Almost completely evaporated. Pundits are now lamenting the right wing’s
I don't think that there will ever be a guns and swords civil war - simply because people don't want it. Nobody is mad or insane enough to shoot each other over which fat White guy is the president. However, I do think a legal civil war is on the table, and "democratic" backsliding could be implemented by either party.
Not in the present, but brazilification is yet to come
Do you believe in Duttons predictions of a rightwing elite outbreeding leftwingers thus turning the culture conservatives. And dysgenics leading to collapse?
I've written on dysgenics - I think it could be a problem in America specifically (I actually underestimated the decline within the USA - more on that later), but Europe looks fine to me, especially when you consider that I overestimated the decline there. The mutational load thing is overblown - I don't see evidence of Americans losing their minds in data on digit span or academic performance.
The fact that dysgenics are worse within liberals will lead to pleiotropy between conservatism and intelligence in the future, but that will take a long time to matter.
Conquest's second law explains why left-wingers have more institutions, but they also seem to start more politically-relevant organizations short of what I'd normally consider an "institution". Black Lives Matter has been tremendously politically relevant for example in a way that I can't think of any right-wing equivalent to.
Old media organizations are all captured by the left, but IMO the left and right have been nearly equally successful at achieving influence by founding new media. Eg, HuffPo vs Breitbart. The right has no equivalent of Vox though, in the intelligent, hip, news-explainer space.
I think a big problem is respectability. Left wing old media like NYT or NPR still have a lot of influence over what is considered respectable, and they will tar any right-wing orgs as "far-right radicals". This means that, even aside from personality differences and the right's potential talent shortage, people on the right who care about their reputation (ie, most people capable of leadership) will not want to found or join right wing orgs; thus the orgs will be worse and less effective and have deservedly terrible reputations. And right wing politicians will not want to associate with them, neutering the orgs' influence relative to something like BLM.
The Proud Boys are self-identified Western Chauvinists. One can imagine a respectable group like this, which perhaps would meet to talk about the Illiad, and lobby local governments and school boards to retain Great Books and exclude anti-western propaganda. But this would require respectable and educated people to start or steer groups of this sort. I think they mostly don't because those who would be interested correctly expect they would be smeared and lose friends if they tried.
Many of the people opposing wokeness are doing it because they have contrarian personalities rather than for being principled right wingers. We are not the kind of people that work well with each other. The far left also has this problem but they are held together by institutional grift while the mainstream woke are conformists that worship the [current year religion] and have a strong herd instinct.
It's not conquest's law. https://www.emilkirkegaard.com/p/john-osullivans-first-law-all-organizations-that-are-not-actually-right-wing-will-over-time-become-left-wing
When will the US have its civil war? What is your prediction?
I don't think that there will ever be a guns and swords civil war - simply because people don't want it. Nobody is mad or insane enough to shoot each other over which fat White guy is the president. However, I do think a legal civil war is on the table, and "democratic" backsliding could be implemented by either party.
Not in the present, but brazilification is yet to come
Do you believe in Duttons predictions of a rightwing elite outbreeding leftwingers thus turning the culture conservatives. And dysgenics leading to collapse?
I've written on dysgenics - I think it could be a problem in America specifically (I actually underestimated the decline within the USA - more on that later), but Europe looks fine to me, especially when you consider that I overestimated the decline there. The mutational load thing is overblown - I don't see evidence of Americans losing their minds in data on digit span or academic performance.
The fact that dysgenics are worse within liberals will lead to pleiotropy between conservatism and intelligence in the future, but that will take a long time to matter.
https://www.cspicenter.com/p/are-we-getting-dumber
Ok thank you. Are you Hispanic?
Yes.
You are intellectually and spiritually white.
Are you a white nationalist?
Conquest's second law explains why left-wingers have more institutions, but they also seem to start more politically-relevant organizations short of what I'd normally consider an "institution". Black Lives Matter has been tremendously politically relevant for example in a way that I can't think of any right-wing equivalent to.
Old media organizations are all captured by the left, but IMO the left and right have been nearly equally successful at achieving influence by founding new media. Eg, HuffPo vs Breitbart. The right has no equivalent of Vox though, in the intelligent, hip, news-explainer space.
I think a big problem is respectability. Left wing old media like NYT or NPR still have a lot of influence over what is considered respectable, and they will tar any right-wing orgs as "far-right radicals". This means that, even aside from personality differences and the right's potential talent shortage, people on the right who care about their reputation (ie, most people capable of leadership) will not want to found or join right wing orgs; thus the orgs will be worse and less effective and have deservedly terrible reputations. And right wing politicians will not want to associate with them, neutering the orgs' influence relative to something like BLM.
The Proud Boys are self-identified Western Chauvinists. One can imagine a respectable group like this, which perhaps would meet to talk about the Illiad, and lobby local governments and school boards to retain Great Books and exclude anti-western propaganda. But this would require respectable and educated people to start or steer groups of this sort. I think they mostly don't because those who would be interested correctly expect they would be smeared and lose friends if they tried.
Many of the people opposing wokeness are doing it because they have contrarian personalities rather than for being principled right wingers. We are not the kind of people that work well with each other. The far left also has this problem but they are held together by institutional grift while the mainstream woke are conformists that worship the [current year religion] and have a strong herd instinct.