To mathematically estimate the IQs of these people, I used publicly available data such as scholastic achievement scores, ethnicity, GPA, wealth, self-reported IQ scores, and so on. Generally, I try to avoid using too many predictors as these variables will covary for other reasons besides intelligence, so continuous regression will result in mistakes.
Many of these figures have exceptionally high IQ/scholastic achievement scores, which should be appropriately regressed to the mean. However, given that they are public figures, this is overall an indication that the result itself may not be a fluke. It is difficult to separate the non-flukes from the flukes, so I gave the safer low estimates instead of the higher estimates.
Personal judgements of intelligence are based on assessments of characteristics that are difficult to quantify or justify.
Confidence intervals were added to indicate how variable I think the estimate is. Estimates based on scholastic test scores or real IQ scores are less variable, while those based on achievement or wealth are more variable. These are not supposed to be symmetric, and most of them have a high upper tail intentionally. Be aware that these are not mathematical judgements, but subjective judgements.
Here are the mathematical estimates I calculated:
Kanye West: 116 [105, 130]
Aella: 130 [120, 150]
FORG1VENGRE: 132 [115, 160]
Scott Alexander: 133 [125, 145] (Verbal Ability: ~145 given perfect SATV)
Joseph Bronski: 139 [130, 150]
Curtis Yarvin: 144 [130, 170]
Light Yagami: 144 [135, 150]
Magnus Carlsen: 146 [130, 170]
Eliezer Yudkowsky: 152 [135, 160] (Crystalized Ability: ~155 given evidence)
L: 156 [145, 190]
Here are my personal judgements for each:
Kanye West: 120
Aella: 130
Scott Alexander: 133 (Verbal Ability: ~145 given perfect SATV)
FORG1VENGRE: 138
Light Yagami: 144
Joseph Bronski: 145
Curtis Yarvin: 145
Eliezer Yudkowsky: 147 (Crystalized Ability: ~155 given evidence)
Magnus Carlsen: 150
L: 170
edit: Yudkowsky commented under the post thread that he scored a 143 on an IQ test and got a perfect score on the SAT, so I adjusted the estimate.
edit: confidence level added.
Estimating IQs of public figures
Wordpress ate my comment when I tried to respond to your post estimating Scott Alexander's IQ, so I will just post my comment here:
This whole analysis is off, but the second paragraph is verifiably wrong. You take Scott’s self-deprecation too seriously.
He scored a 1540 on his SATs (V800; M740) and a 30 on his MCAT.
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/8e2838/ama_request_with_scott/
This method of estimating IQ–using high school SAT scores–will *always* yield an underestimate for intellectual outliers–especially intellectual outliers with assymetric cognitive profiles. Once you get past IQ 145, you have to incorporate qualitative evidence into the analysis. This may not seem as “objective” as regressing on high school test scores, but it’s necessary nonetheless.
Already went over this on Twitter but Yarvin's and Yud's estimates are ridiculously bloated. Yud's upper bound should be 143; I'd put his median estimate with Scott. Yarvin could go as low as 120 as I have explained. His writing is worse than Scott and Yud's as well so it would make sense. https://twitter.com/BronskiJoseph/status/1639665822023950336?s=20
My list:
Kanye West: 116
Aella: 119
Curtis Yarvin: 120
Scott Alexander: 125
Eliezer Yudkowsky: 125
FORG1VENGRE: 132
Magnus Carlsen: 146