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UBERSOY's avatar

You and Emil Kirkegaard are my favourite social scientists 👨🏿‍🔬

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Norman G. Angleson's avatar

"In addition, the association between paternal age and outcomes such as the number of children between siblings has stayed stagnant in Sweden - whether that was before industrialization occurred or after it occurred. If anything, mutational load appears to have been more of an issue in historical Sweden than modern Sweden."

I really wish people would read this paper more thoroughly. The graph is the sibling control results, which is less appropriate for assessing the relative reproductive success of high-ML vs low-ML than for assessing the causal deleterious effects that ML (Mutational Load) has on phenotypes; this is smaller in modern than historical sweden which is just a cherry on top of the paper's two other findings, these being:

1. for the non-sibling-control results, high-ML parents had a higher absolute number of children in historical sweden than low-ML parents, but in modern sweden, low-ML parents had more children than high-ML parents

2. average paternal age is down; people nowadays start having kids later, but stop having kids earlier, and the latter is slightly more important.

People also seem to not understand the study design here. First of all, there are three generations, let's call grandparent generation g1, parent generation g2, and child generation g3. g1 has children at varying paternal age, and this determines which g2 parents are high/low mutational load, and so it's the relative reproductive outcomes of different g2 individuals that they're studying. Second note, there's a reason that "number of children" appears in the chart twice, and they do not mean the same thing:

"(b) Statistical approach: ...We analysed reproductive success for all offspring, including those who died in childhood or never married."

in other words, when looking at how the ML of g2 individuals affects how many children they have, infant mortality + etc is taken into account unless specified otherwise (i.e. in e4), making m1 the most comprehensive possible estimate of the amount of purifying selection that occurs (and again, m1 finds positive effects of ML on success in historical sweden while finding negative effects in modern sweden).

Another ML null finding:

This k=262 meta-analysis found no correlation between publication year and percent left handed

https://not-equal.org/content/pdf/misc/10.1037.bul0000229.pdf

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