Your argument only supports the claim that low-IQ immigration depresses national income, not the income of the native population. (4) doesn't follow from (1)+(2)+(3).
Say you have country 'utopia' with an average IQ of 100, and an average wage of 51,000 per year. Country 'cesspit' has an average IQ of 85 and an average wage of of 13,800 per year -- what would be expected from the GDP per cap ~ NIQ regression model.
The average person who immigrates to the utopia from the cesspit will be expected to earn 37,000 assuming a 2% effect of one IQ point on wages, an increase of 17,000 from their expected income in the cesspit. But now the average IQ of the utopia has decreased -- if everybody from the cesspit immigrates to the utopia, the average income is now expected to be 26,500 based on the regression models.
Now that the average IQ of the country is 92.5, somebody with an average IQ of 100 is now expected to earn 30,000 instead of 51,000.
In fact, the total prosperity of the world (assuming utopia and cesspit are the only two countries that exist) has decreased, because everybody is now earning an average salary of 26,500 instead of 34,000.
It is very implausible to me that the individual-level-effect of IQ on wages would be unchanged after the cesspit country fully migrates, but I can see how the argument follows if you take the exponential regression coefficients of GNI on IQ at face value as literally causal. Fair enough I guess.
A minor point, but do you have any thoughts as to why the national IQ of the US would be the same or higher than most of Europe, including NOR and LUX? Is it that sufficient selective immigration counterbalances the Black and Hispanic populations? I find this unlikely given how much unselective immigration occurs. Does the US have a superior education system that inflates PISA scores relative to actual IQ?
I don't buy your critique of smart fractions theory.
The only solid critique that doesn't load on identitarianism is that lower IQ immigrants wreck institutions. But considering that South Africa has managed to maintain more or less First World institutions while becoming 90% Black, it really does seem that the principle there is a "lot of ruin in a nation" is very, very true.
Globally, the world is 15% Black and might become 30% Black at the end of the century. That's basically Michigan to Alabama. Probably those Blacks will be quite a lot smarter than they are now due to Flynn effects, even discounting any transhumanist stuff.
Wdym there is no evidence for smart fraction? When smart fraction-belivers use the term we ofc think the ruling group matters. Smart fraction will show up however you slice the data. It's not random that the countries with the highest variance in IQ (fact check me on that I could be misremembering), South Africa and Israel, greatly outperform their national IQ.
Also, you shouldn't deny AGI. Scientists have been simulating increasingly complex animal brains. A complete human brain simulation will happen within our lifetime. There aren't *that* many nodes in a brain, and it certainly doesn't use that much energy. And that is a more challenging problem than building something with better analytical abilities than a human brain—evolution was only imperfectly optimizing for analytical skills anyway.
Suppose one is concerned about the average level intelligence and wants it to be as high as possible.
Immigration of low IQ immigrants(Africans especially) to developed countries:
1. Massively lowers their birth rates -> world IQ average increases(well decreases more slowly)
2. Partially closes the IQ gap(flynn effect), plausibly 50%.
3. Massively increases their income -> they will afford embryo selection/genetic engineering sooner.
And anyways even if you wanted to limit immigration so that it had no adverse effect on the national average IQ the top ~250 million Africans could immigrate to the US(taking into account regression towards the mean; assuming 85 genotypic IQ, 15SD, h^2=0.6) with no change to the national IQ. My calculation could be wrong.
Is that true for people who immigrate as adults? Sure, there's always the next generation, but by the time they grow up even Africa might have a low TFR.
"they will afford embryo selection/genetic engineering sooner"
But will low IQ people use it, or have unplanned pregnancies the old fashioned way?
You had me up to the “smart fraction” rebuttal. ;-) But it was good—and necessary—to read a soundly reasoned skepticism such as you presented. Food for thought.
Your argument only supports the claim that low-IQ immigration depresses national income, not the income of the native population. (4) doesn't follow from (1)+(2)+(3).
It does.
Say you have country 'utopia' with an average IQ of 100, and an average wage of 51,000 per year. Country 'cesspit' has an average IQ of 85 and an average wage of of 13,800 per year -- what would be expected from the GDP per cap ~ NIQ regression model.
The average person who immigrates to the utopia from the cesspit will be expected to earn 37,000 assuming a 2% effect of one IQ point on wages, an increase of 17,000 from their expected income in the cesspit. But now the average IQ of the utopia has decreased -- if everybody from the cesspit immigrates to the utopia, the average income is now expected to be 26,500 based on the regression models.
Now that the average IQ of the country is 92.5, somebody with an average IQ of 100 is now expected to earn 30,000 instead of 51,000.
In fact, the total prosperity of the world (assuming utopia and cesspit are the only two countries that exist) has decreased, because everybody is now earning an average salary of 26,500 instead of 34,000.
It is very implausible to me that the individual-level-effect of IQ on wages would be unchanged after the cesspit country fully migrates, but I can see how the argument follows if you take the exponential regression coefficients of GNI on IQ at face value as literally causal. Fair enough I guess.
A minor point, but do you have any thoughts as to why the national IQ of the US would be the same or higher than most of Europe, including NOR and LUX? Is it that sufficient selective immigration counterbalances the Black and Hispanic populations? I find this unlikely given how much unselective immigration occurs. Does the US have a superior education system that inflates PISA scores relative to actual IQ?
White Americans score well on the PISA, about as well as JP or KR.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-new-2018-pisa-school-test-scores-usa-usa/
I don't buy your critique of smart fractions theory.
The only solid critique that doesn't load on identitarianism is that lower IQ immigrants wreck institutions. But considering that South Africa has managed to maintain more or less First World institutions while becoming 90% Black, it really does seem that the principle there is a "lot of ruin in a nation" is very, very true.
Globally, the world is 15% Black and might become 30% Black at the end of the century. That's basically Michigan to Alabama. Probably those Blacks will be quite a lot smarter than they are now due to Flynn effects, even discounting any transhumanist stuff.
Wdym there is no evidence for smart fraction? When smart fraction-belivers use the term we ofc think the ruling group matters. Smart fraction will show up however you slice the data. It's not random that the countries with the highest variance in IQ (fact check me on that I could be misremembering), South Africa and Israel, greatly outperform their national IQ.
Also, you shouldn't deny AGI. Scientists have been simulating increasingly complex animal brains. A complete human brain simulation will happen within our lifetime. There aren't *that* many nodes in a brain, and it certainly doesn't use that much energy. And that is a more challenging problem than building something with better analytical abilities than a human brain—evolution was only imperfectly optimizing for analytical skills anyway.
Suppose one is concerned about the average level intelligence and wants it to be as high as possible.
Immigration of low IQ immigrants(Africans especially) to developed countries:
1. Massively lowers their birth rates -> world IQ average increases(well decreases more slowly)
2. Partially closes the IQ gap(flynn effect), plausibly 50%.
3. Massively increases their income -> they will afford embryo selection/genetic engineering sooner.
And anyways even if you wanted to limit immigration so that it had no adverse effect on the national average IQ the top ~250 million Africans could immigrate to the US(taking into account regression towards the mean; assuming 85 genotypic IQ, 15SD, h^2=0.6) with no change to the national IQ. My calculation could be wrong.
"Massively lowers their birth rates"
Is that true for people who immigrate as adults? Sure, there's always the next generation, but by the time they grow up even Africa might have a low TFR.
"they will afford embryo selection/genetic engineering sooner"
But will low IQ people use it, or have unplanned pregnancies the old fashioned way?
You had me up to the “smart fraction” rebuttal. ;-) But it was good—and necessary—to read a soundly reasoned skepticism such as you presented. Food for thought.