"If the cause is civil rights, then it’s likely that it will come back because civil rights are extremely popular and unlikely to be overturned, despite years of high quality legal and political criticism of the law."
No, the Trump administration has done a lot to change civil rights law, which used to always move in a left-wing direction under both administrations. If wokeness is civil rights law, then it is a problem that is in the process of being solved.
Also, the "cycle" theory here is discussed in my book too.
No. This stuff is unpopular and it's harder to restart than keep going. Many leftists are secretly happy that Republicans got rid of this headache for them. And even if it's in a ping-pong situation, that would be a major change from the status quo when institutions only worried about pressure from the left. Plus state governments are doing a lot of new things.
Minority interests are diverging which makes wokism more difficult, but it could still happen under an American Chavez who unites lower class minorities with the disgruntled “Lumpenbourgeoisie” and elite AAPIs. Likely a Zohran or AOC type figure. This figure could wreak havoc. By 2040 AI might be advanced enough to predict the real identity of pseudonymous writers with a lot of certainty based on idiosyncratic writing characteristics, posting schedules, and revealed information. With a minority majority they could enforce reparations and implement bong-style speech laws even for online anonymous users. They would also probably go back to enforcing woke in American vassals (if they will even be so dependent on us by that point), while simultaneously cozying up to a China which will by that point be filled with the young and revenge-obsessed radicals that the current gerontocracy keeps at bay.
How is 1980-1995 more woke than 1968 -1980? The Vietnam protests, hippies and Lennonism, all that far-left terrorism of the 70's, the legislation on affirmative action, the entranching of feminism, environmentalism and race studies in universities etc are less woke than the Thatcher-Reagan era and the global collapse of marxism?
The woke are proudly, loudly and openly racists and take delight in hurting their enemies and their fellow travellers who don't move in lockstep with the herd.
If you think quote : “the vietnam protests and hippies and “”lennoism”” were “far left terrorism” , you obviously suffer from conceptual dyslexia. That, or you are a complete fwit.
Wokeness ended because of October 7 2023 attacks on Israel and American students siding with Palestine. All the Jewish donors removed their money form left-wing institutions. This is just a fact.
Three episodes does not make a cycle. Outbursts of wokism in recent times seem to be a manifestation of the fifty-year cycle of creedal passion periods which can be tracked back in the US to the early 18th century and further back in Europe.
It is still crazy that in the US the police may shoot someone in the chest after getting the face slahed by a piece of glass. In Hungary which has a right-wing government for 15 years, they may only shoot if grievous body harm is threatened, which is something much more serious than a piece of glass. Even in this case, the judges prefer a bullet to the legs, not chest, generally people dying of arrest does not happen, it could only happen with a gun or knife.
There was a time when Facebook proudly introduced 50 pronouns. Today everybody accepts she, he or they. IMHO this is very moderate. One no longer needs to figure out what the heck is the difference between xe and ze.
The great awokening has been happening for 15 years, longer for certain issues. And some issues like lgbt have been going on a fairly linear trajectory for over 30 years, but it went from being unacceptable to fairly open in places like universities over a very short period of time 35-40 years ago. Also one of the striking things that makes people think earlier eras were more woke is that they were more martial and masculine compared to today where the social environment has become extremely feminized
Why do you place so much emphasis on race and so little on feminism? In Europe, at least, I think feminism has had a much greater impact on everyday interactions than race issues.
The Pallasen panels from the GSS are misleading. It's only race. Woke is much more than that. I argued in that thread for the need for a much more robust composite indicator. I don't think the 30 year cycle is vindicated. Mamdani win illustrates Woke is very much alive.
Excellent article Seb. I have one irrelevant question and one irrelevant comment inspired by your graph pertaining to Hispanics.
1. Has there been research into the extent to which the Hispanic life-span advantage is genetic? Hispanics are more obese than whites, and poorer, and have less access to healthcare, but they live longer. Has there been any attempt identify the genetic advantage? The reason I ask is because Bolivia has a life expectancy of 64.93, and Mexico has a life expectancy of 74.83, both of which are lower than USA whites. Are USA Hispanics being selected for by markers of health (proficiency at manual labor)?
2. This is less of a question, and more of a comment regarding Hispanic education. Since Hispanics are less educated than blacks, but earn more money, does this make Hispanics the ideal Republican constituency?
To spell this out (since this is a comment I cannot attach an image): Imagine a graph with two axes, money (x) and education (Y). People in the lower left (low education, low money) are black Democrats. People in the bottom right are Republicans (low education, high money, think tradesmen). People in the top left are Democrats (high education, low money). People in the top right are moderate (high education, high money).
Obviously the most Democratic people in the country are poor trans baristas with two PhDs in sociology and African studies (high education, low money) and the most Republican people are the "redneck rich" dudes like those bearded Pentecostals from Duck Dynasty. Given that Hispanics refuse to go to college, but they make more than blacks, it seems like they are natural Trumpists.
Postmodernist internal logic leans towards cyclical models for the same exact reasons, though they seem to prefer a 10 year model.
At least in the case of Japan, leftist activism peaked in 1949, 1960, 1968, 1980 (sort of), and 1989.
"If the cause is civil rights, then it’s likely that it will come back because civil rights are extremely popular and unlikely to be overturned, despite years of high quality legal and political criticism of the law."
No, the Trump administration has done a lot to change civil rights law, which used to always move in a left-wing direction under both administrations. If wokeness is civil rights law, then it is a problem that is in the process of being solved.
Also, the "cycle" theory here is discussed in my book too.
Hopefully SCOTUS acts by ruling that sec 2 of VRA. Unconstitutional and granting cert on disparate impact.
Do you not think a dem admin will reverse all trump civil rights EOs day 1?
No. This stuff is unpopular and it's harder to restart than keep going. Many leftists are secretly happy that Republicans got rid of this headache for them. And even if it's in a ping-pong situation, that would be a major change from the status quo when institutions only worried about pressure from the left. Plus state governments are doing a lot of new things.
Are you for repealing civil rights towards private institutions or just disparate impact?
Minority interests are diverging which makes wokism more difficult, but it could still happen under an American Chavez who unites lower class minorities with the disgruntled “Lumpenbourgeoisie” and elite AAPIs. Likely a Zohran or AOC type figure. This figure could wreak havoc. By 2040 AI might be advanced enough to predict the real identity of pseudonymous writers with a lot of certainty based on idiosyncratic writing characteristics, posting schedules, and revealed information. With a minority majority they could enforce reparations and implement bong-style speech laws even for online anonymous users. They would also probably go back to enforcing woke in American vassals (if they will even be so dependent on us by that point), while simultaneously cozying up to a China which will by that point be filled with the young and revenge-obsessed radicals that the current gerontocracy keeps at bay.
How is 1980-1995 more woke than 1968 -1980? The Vietnam protests, hippies and Lennonism, all that far-left terrorism of the 70's, the legislation on affirmative action, the entranching of feminism, environmentalism and race studies in universities etc are less woke than the Thatcher-Reagan era and the global collapse of marxism?
The woke are proudly, loudly and openly racists and take delight in hurting their enemies and their fellow travellers who don't move in lockstep with the herd.
If you think quote : “the vietnam protests and hippies and “”lennoism”” were “far left terrorism” , you obviously suffer from conceptual dyslexia. That, or you are a complete fwit.
lmao
Your reading comprehension is horrible fwit. And you don't know how to quote.
Wokeness ended because of October 7 2023 attacks on Israel and American students siding with Palestine. All the Jewish donors removed their money form left-wing institutions. This is just a fact.
Three episodes does not make a cycle. Outbursts of wokism in recent times seem to be a manifestation of the fifty-year cycle of creedal passion periods which can be tracked back in the US to the early 18th century and further back in Europe.
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/cycles-of-radicalization
It is still crazy that in the US the police may shoot someone in the chest after getting the face slahed by a piece of glass. In Hungary which has a right-wing government for 15 years, they may only shoot if grievous body harm is threatened, which is something much more serious than a piece of glass. Even in this case, the judges prefer a bullet to the legs, not chest, generally people dying of arrest does not happen, it could only happen with a gun or knife.
>normalization of pronouns
There was a time when Facebook proudly introduced 50 pronouns. Today everybody accepts she, he or they. IMHO this is very moderate. One no longer needs to figure out what the heck is the difference between xe and ze.
The great awokening has been happening for 15 years, longer for certain issues. And some issues like lgbt have been going on a fairly linear trajectory for over 30 years, but it went from being unacceptable to fairly open in places like universities over a very short period of time 35-40 years ago. Also one of the striking things that makes people think earlier eras were more woke is that they were more martial and masculine compared to today where the social environment has become extremely feminized
Peter Turchin has a 50-year cycle, which is almost double. Probably there's something going on related to the human lifecycle and generational change.
Why do you place so much emphasis on race and so little on feminism? In Europe, at least, I think feminism has had a much greater impact on everyday interactions than race issues.
There’s a whole book about the recurrence of wokeness over time called We Have Never Been Woke by Musa Al-Gharbi, who also has a substack.
Never heard of him.
The Pallasen panels from the GSS are misleading. It's only race. Woke is much more than that. I argued in that thread for the need for a much more robust composite indicator. I don't think the 30 year cycle is vindicated. Mamdani win illustrates Woke is very much alive.
Excellent article Seb. I have one irrelevant question and one irrelevant comment inspired by your graph pertaining to Hispanics.
1. Has there been research into the extent to which the Hispanic life-span advantage is genetic? Hispanics are more obese than whites, and poorer, and have less access to healthcare, but they live longer. Has there been any attempt identify the genetic advantage? The reason I ask is because Bolivia has a life expectancy of 64.93, and Mexico has a life expectancy of 74.83, both of which are lower than USA whites. Are USA Hispanics being selected for by markers of health (proficiency at manual labor)?
2. This is less of a question, and more of a comment regarding Hispanic education. Since Hispanics are less educated than blacks, but earn more money, does this make Hispanics the ideal Republican constituency?
To spell this out (since this is a comment I cannot attach an image): Imagine a graph with two axes, money (x) and education (Y). People in the lower left (low education, low money) are black Democrats. People in the bottom right are Republicans (low education, high money, think tradesmen). People in the top left are Democrats (high education, low money). People in the top right are moderate (high education, high money).
Obviously the most Democratic people in the country are poor trans baristas with two PhDs in sociology and African studies (high education, low money) and the most Republican people are the "redneck rich" dudes like those bearded Pentecostals from Duck Dynasty. Given that Hispanics refuse to go to college, but they make more than blacks, it seems like they are natural Trumpists.